MILAN—The global economy is undergoing a far-reaching transformation. Change is being driven by shifts in countries’ populations, productivity, wealth, power, and ambitions, and accelerated by US President Donald Trump’s moves to reshape supply-chain structures, alter cross-border investment incentives, and limit the movement of people and technology across borders. More on: The tensions that these changes are producing are most apparent in escalating disputes over trade. Notwithstanding some dislocations in emerging economies, markets’ reaction to the tit-for-tat tariffs so far has been only muted. Investors probably assume that it is all just part of a renegotiation process that will ultimately produce new rules of engagement for global business—rules that are even more favorable to the powerful. But such assumptions may underestimate the complexity of the issues at play, beginning with the politically salient matter of where investment and employment are created.

On their own, tariff and trade barriers, if viewed as transitory negotiating tactics, will not significantly change global investment patterns or the structure of global supply chains and employment. Protectionists like Trump argue that the power of tariffs and other trade barriers lies in their ability to curb cheating and free-riding. The implication is that such measures can help to eliminate the tensions, imbalances, and polarization associated with globalization. “Cheating,” of course, is in the eye of the beholder.

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State subsidies for specific sectors, including preferential treatment of state-owned enterprises, may be regarded as cheating. So may requiring technology transfer in exchange for market access, public procurement favoring domestic entities, acceptance of unsafe work environments and exploitative labor practices, and exchange-rate manipulation. The test of free-riding is whether a country contributes too little, relative to its capacity, to the provision of global public goods, such as defense and security, scientific and technical knowledge, mitigation of climate change, and absorption of refugees. The culprits depend on the topic in question. More on: But whatever the downsides to cheating or free-riding, tackling these behaviors is unlikely to eliminate the conditions that have contributed to economic, social, and political polarization. After all, labor arbitrage has been the core driver of the organization of global supply chains for at least three decades—accelerating, of course, with China’s rise—with significant distributional and employment effects. It seems unlikely that, had China and other emerging economies adhered to the letter of World Trade Organization rules, the distributional effects of their integration into the global economy would have disappeared.

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What, then, is the real purpose of the tariffs? Trump could be interested only in leveling the playing field, at which point he will accept global market outcomes. But it is more plausible that this is all part of his strategy—echoed by leaders in a growing number of countries worldwide—to win support by asserting national priorities and sovereignty. Such efforts are pushing the world toward a more balkanized system. Moreover, the challenges and fears raised by advances in technology, especially digital technology, with regard to both national security and economic performance are also propelling the world toward greater fragmentation. Fifteen years ago, few would have predicted that mega-platforms like Google or Facebook would become key players in areas like image recognition, artificial intelligence, and the development of autonomous vehicles (including military vehicles).